Promotion with and without Learning: Effects on Student Dropout

Many educators and policymakers have argued for lenient grade promotion policy – even automatic promotion – in developing country settings where grade repetition rates are high. The argument rests on the assumptions that repetition discourages persistence or continuation in school and that the promotion of children with lower achievement does not hamper their ability or their peer’s ability to perform in the next level. Alternatively, promoting students into grades for which they are not prepared may lead to higher dropout. This study shows that in a sample of schools from Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, promotions are primarily based on merit. An econometric decomposition of the promotion into two parts, one based on indicators of merit (attendance and achievement in mathematics and language) and the other uncorrelated with those indicators) allow a test of whether parental decisions about enrollment are influenced by merit-based or non-meritbased promotions. Results suggest that enrollment decisions are heavily influenced by student academic performance in the previous year, and that promotions that are uncorrelated with merit have a negligible impact on school continuation.